Slower Decay of Landfalling Hurricanes in a Warming World: Nature

November 12, 2020

Li_et_al_Slower_Decay_of_Landfalling_Hurricanes

"Over the past 50 years the [time on land of] North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes has increased by 94%. This increase is primarily fuelled by the enhanced stock of storm moisture supplied by warmer oceans. [These] findings have direct implications for the damage inflicted by landfalling hurricanes in a warming world. Even when the intensity at landfall remains the same, the slower decay means that regions far inland face increasingly intense winds (accompanied by heavy rainfall). Consequently, the economic toll incurred keeps soaring."

"This factor may shed new light on a puzzling trend. For over a century, the frequency and intensity of landfalling hurricanes have remained roughly unchanged, but their inflation-adjusted economic losses have steadily increased. It has been argued that this increase stems entirely from societal factors (the growth in coastal population and wealth), with the warming climate playing no part."

"We propose that this accounting may be missing the costs tied to the slower decay of the hurricanes in a warming world. Finally, for hazard planning, we call attention to inland regions— these are less prepared for hurricanes than their coastal counterparts and therefore are more vulnerable to damage from slowly decaying hurricanes." - Lin Li and Pinaki Chakraborty, Nature, v587, November 11, 2020.