Global Increase in Major Tropical Cyclone Exceedance Probability over the Past Four Decades


Kossin et al. reports on evidence of increasing, global tropical cyclone intensity over the past four decades linked to a warming world. “With increasing sea surface temperatures, this has increased tropical cyclone potential intensity…shifting the intensity distribution towards greater intensity: tropical cyclones have become substantially stronger with a likely human fingerprint on this increase.”

James P. Kossin, Kenneth R. Knapp, Timothy L. Olander, Christopher S. Velden, Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jun 2020, 117 (22) 11975-11980; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920849117